Pulling Back the Curtain on Quant Signals for Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW), Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD)

Today we are spotlighting shares of Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) and looking at how the firm stacks up in terms of valuation by the numbers.  One of the most important ratios to look at when weighing an investment decision is the Return on Equity of the company.  At the time of writing Clearwater Paper Corporation has an ROE of 0.198892. With ROE, Investors can see if they’re getting a good return on their money, while a company can evaluate how efficiently they’re utilizing shareholder’s equity.

Investors have many things to keep an eye on when trading the equity market. Riding through the ups and downs that come with market volatility may take some getting used to for beginners. Even if the investor does all the proper research and stock homework, things may not go as planned. One of the more important aspects of securing long-term success in the markets is learning how to execute a well-planned strategy all the way through to completion. Finding that right stocks to add to the portfolio may take some time and effort, but it can be accomplished. Deciding on the proper time to sell can be the trickiest part. Many investors will have the tendency to panic when markets are suffering. Although market panic may be fairly normal, it can have longer lasting adverse effects on the stock portfolio. 

Drilling down into some additional metrics, we note that Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) has a Price to Book ratio of 0.741127. This ratio is calculated by dividing the current share price by the book value per share. Investors may use Price to Book to display how the market portrays the value of a stock. Checking in on some other ratios, the company has a Price to Cash Flow ratio of 3.175598, and a current Price to Earnings ratio of 3.726280. The P/E ratio is one of the most common ratios used for figuring out whether a company is overvalued or undervalued.

After a recent scan, we can see that Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) has a Shareholder Yield of -0.001704 and a Shareholder Yield (Mebane Faber) of -0.14635. The first value is calculated by adding the dividend yield to the percentage of repurchased shares. The second value adds in the net debt repaid yield to the calculation. Shareholder yield has the ability to show how much money the firm is giving back to shareholders via a few different avenues. Companies may issue new shares and buy back their own shares. This may occur at the same time. Investors may also use shareholder yield to gauge a baseline rate of return.

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) is 0.070343.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) is 6.661817.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) is 0.101567.

The Earnings to Price yield of Clearwater Paper Corporation NYSE:CLW is 0.268364.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.  Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Clearwater Paper Corporation NYSE:CLW is 0.072547.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) is 0.092090.

Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) currently has a Montier C-score of 2.00000. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were cooking the books in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.

At the time of writing, Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) has a Piotroski F-Score of 6. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Shifting gears, we can see that Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) has a Q.i. Value of 39.00000. The Q.i. Value ranks companies using four ratios. These ratios consist of EBITDA Yield, FCF Yield, Liquidity, and Earnings Yield. The purpose of the Q.i. Value is to help identify companies that are the most undervalued. Typically, the lower the value, the more undervalued the company tends to be.

Volatility

Watching some historical volatility numbers on shares of Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW), we can see that the 12 month volatility is presently 60.580500. The 6 month volatility is 43.587300, and the 3 month is spotted at 41.865400. Following volatility data can help measure how much the stock price has fluctuated over the specified time period. Although past volatility action may help project future stock volatility, it may also be vastly different when taking into account other factors that may be driving price action during the measured time period.

When it comes to investing in the stock market, there are many different styles and strategies that can be used. Some investors will want to do all the work themselves to try to adopt a specific plan all their own. Others will attempt to replicate strategies that have worked for others in the past. Of course, there is no sure bet strategy that will produce instant investing success. Taking the time to study all the different investing methods may be useful for some, but not as helpful for others. What worked in the past may not work again in the future. Investors will often need to decide how much risk they are willing to take on when investing in stocks. Once the risk appetite is figured out, they may want to decide how much and how aggressive they want to invest. 

Placing Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) shares under the microscope we note that the firm has a current Return on Equity of -0.431624.  Simply put, this ratio determines how well the firm uses investment funds to generate profit.  This ratio is often considered “the mother of all ratios” as it often reveals how well a company is operating.

Investors often have to make the decision of how aggressive they are going to invest. Some investors looking to make a quick dollar may jump in head first without a plan. This can be dangerous for the health of the portfolio in the long-term. Taking a chance on a risky stock may provide high returns, but investors often need to calculate whether the risk is worth the reward. Managing that risk in turbulent markets may help keep the average investor afloat when the markets inevitably turn sour for an extended period. Doing all the necessary stock research may include keeping a close tab on technicals, fundamentals, relevant economic data, and earnings reports. Investors may have to find a way to keep the rational side from being consumed by irrational behavior when studying the markets.

In additiona to ROE, investors might also take into consideration some other ratios.  One of the most popular ratios is the “Return on Assets” (aka ROA).  This score indicates how profitable a company is relative to its total assets.  The Return on Assets for Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) is -0.360843.  This number is calculated by dividing net income after tax by the company’s total assets.  A company that manages their assets well will have a higher return, while a company that manages their assets poorly will have a lower return.

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) is -0.741900.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) is -3.526639.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) is -0.729658.

After a recent scan, we can see that Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) has a Shareholder Yield of -0.394479 and a Shareholder Yield (Mebane Faber) of 0.04025. The first value is calculated by adding the dividend yield to the percentage of repurchased shares. The second value adds in the net debt repaid yield to the calculation. Shareholder yield has the ability to show how much money the firm is giving back to shareholders via a few different avenues. Companies may issue new shares and buy back their own shares. This may occur at the same time. Investors may also use shareholder yield to gauge a baseline rate of return.

Quant Scores

Checking in on some valuation rankings, Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) has a Value Composite score of 83. Developed by James O’Shaughnessy, the VC score uses five valuation ratios. These ratios are price to earnings, price to cash flow, EBITDA to EV, price to book value, and price to sales. The VC is displayed as a number between 1 and 100. In general, a company with a score closer to 0 would be seen as undervalued, and a score closer to 100 would indicate an overvalued company. Adding a sixth ratio, shareholder yield, we can view the Value Composite 2 score which is currently sitting at 88.

Investors may be interested in viewing the Gross Margin score on shares of Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD). The name currently has a score of 49.00000. This score is derived from the Gross Margin (Marx) stability and growth over the previous eight years. The Gross Margin score lands on a scale from 1 to 100 where a score of 1 would be considered positive, and a score of 100 would be seen as negative.

Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) has a current MF Rank of 17935. Developed by hedge fund manager Joel Greenblatt, the intention of the formula is to spot high quality companies that are trading at an attractive price. The formula uses ROIC and earnings yield ratios to find quality, undervalued stocks. In general, companies with the lowest combined rank may be the higher quality picks.

Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) has a current ERP5 Rank of 15052. The ERP5 Rank may assist investors with spotting companies that are undervalued. This ranking uses four ratios. These ratios are Earnings Yield, ROIC, Price to Book, and 5 year average ROIC. When looking at the ERP5 ranking, it is generally considered the lower the value, the better.

Price Index & Volatility

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) is 121.638300.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) is 175.043100.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 133.924000.

Trying to predict the day to day short-term movements of the stock market can be nearly impossible. Stocks have the tendency to make sudden moves on even the slightest bit of news or for apparently no reason at all. The daily trader may be looking to capitalize on swings or momentum, but the long-term investor may be searching for stability and consistency over a sustained period of time. During trading sessions, stock movements can seem like a popularity contest from time to time. Even after meticulous study, there may be no logical reason for a particular stock move. Riding out the waves of uncertainty may not be easy, but having a full-proof plan for when markets turn bad might be a great help to investors for long-term portfolio health.  

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Haydale Graphene Industries plc (AIM:HAYD) presently has a 10 month price index of 0.29565. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 0.25468, the 24 month is 0.18630, and the 36 month is 0.20238. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 0.49635, the 3 month is 0.66019, and the 1 month is currently 1.36000.

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